Thursday, May 06, 2004

Kerry keeps his lead in New Hampshire (NH)

crossposted at The American Street
Kerry maintains his lead over Bush in NH, according to the latest UNH Granite State Poll (warning: PDF file). Numbers in parentheses indicate Feb. 2004 survey results.

Kerry 49% (53%)
Bush 45% (39%)
Other 2%
Undecided 4%

MoE +/-4.2%, N=542

Despite the sharp decline from February, not to fret. Democratic primary excitement probably influenced Kerry’s February numbers in this right-leaning swing state. Voters in NH have also seen a lot more of Dubya ads in the last few months. Nice to see that Kerry has finally started running ads this month in NH.

More good news: among voters who are undeclared in terms of party affiliation, Kerry’s lead is comfortably larger.

Kerry 57%
Bush 36%
Other 1%
Undecided 4%

N = 186 (total number of participants = 484)

Note the low 'other' percentage. Looks like New Hampshire voters may be shunning Nader.

Even better, keep in mind these numbers, collected between April 19th through 26th, won’t reflect gains due to the Kerry ad blitz this month and the Abu Ghraib fallout.