Friday, September 24, 2004

Sep. 20, 2004 WSJ-Zogby Interactive poll

A bit late but I want to get the latest Zogby interactive poll results out anyway.

It's interesting that support for Kerry appears to be solidifying in the states where there is no question he leads over Dubya (Sep. 7 results in parenthesis.) I think this is to be expected now that we're a bit past the Republican convention. Minnesota jumps into this category this time.

New Mexico 12.7% (9.7%)
Oregon 12.0% (9.7%)
Minnesota 9.7% (6.8%, within MoE Sept. 7th)
Washington 8.7% (8.5%)
Michigan 6.0% (6.6%)

In states where Kerry numbers are within MoE, numbers appear to be around the same. Arkansas is new from Sept. 7th; however, it was in the Kerry column in the Aug. 23 poll (2.6% within MoE). Fewer states in this category; Missouri and Nevada go to lean Dubya, within MoE. Kerry loses two states, gains one.

New Hampshire 3.6% (4.7%)
Pennsylvania 3.1% (2.8%)
Iowa 3.0% (3.7%)
Wisconsin 2.4% (2.4%)
Florida 0.5% (0.3%)
Arkansas 0.1% (last time, 1.7% for Dubya, within MoE)

As for Dubya, he loses 2 out of 3 states outside of MoE: Ohio and Tennessee, negating post-RNC bounce. Dubya is solidifying his lead in West Virginia; why?

West Virginia 12.4% (9.0%)

The following are states for Dubya but within MoE. Ohio and Tennessee now fall in the lean Dubya column, within MoE.

Tennessee 5.5% (9.6%, out of MoE for Dubya)
Missouri 5.4% (0.4% lean Kerry last time)
Ohio 3.3% (10.9%, out of MoE for Dubya)
Nevada 2.2% (0.6%, lean Kerry last time)

Overall, I'd say Kerry's numbers look marginally better than the Sep. 7th poll, the one which reflects a Dubya bounce. It wasn't much.

Still, this is a damn close race, advantage Kerry.