September 7, 2004 WSJ-Zogby Interactive Poll

I find looking at these Zogby Interactive swing state polls to be strangely addicting. Now what is that about? And while I'm sure all the other poll junkies have already analyzed this poll up the wazoo, here's my analysis anyway. Numbers in parenthesis from 8/23/04 poll for comparison.

States outside of margin of error (MoE) Kerry carries:

Oregon 9.7% (11.3%)
New Mexico 9.7% (5.6% for Kerry but within MoE)
Washington 8.5% (8.4%)
Michigan 6.6% (5.2% for Kerry but within MoE)

These four states have consistently been outside of MoE for Kerry the last four Zogby results: 9/7, 8/23, 8/2, and 7/26. But Washington has always stayed in this group. Even when any of the above states fell out of MoE, they were still within MoE for Kerry.

States outside of MoE Bush carries this time:

Ohio 10.9% (5.6%)
Tennessee 9.6% (1.0% for Kerry but within MoE)
West Virginia 9.0% (7.8% for Bush but within MoE)

Bush carries more states this time than in the last four Zogby polls. In the 8/23 poll, only Ohio was out of MoE. Still, not to fret. When you look at the states within MoE on both sides, most are in the Kerry column. There isn't a whole lot of back and forth movement except for WV, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Ohio has consistently stayed in the Bush column but usually not outside of MoE.

States within MoE Kerry carries this Zogby:

Minnesota 6.8% (5.7%)
NH 4.7% (7.2%)
Iowa 3.7% (7.0%)
Pennsylvania 2.8% (8.3%, out of MoE for Kerry last time)
Wisconsin 2.4% (4.4%)
Nevada 0.6% (1.7%)
Missouri 0.4% (0.5%)
Florida 0.3% (0.6%)

Note: even though the Missouri number is just about even (0.4%), Missouri voters still go for Kerry in the last four Zogby results. It's always a squeaker(0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7%).

In general, looks like the margin with which Kerry leads in most states has dropped but I think this is to be expected due to the RNC. The nice thing is, even though that margin has narrowed, not many states have crossed over to the Bush side.

States within MoE for Bush:

Arkansas 1.7% (last time, 2.6% for Kerry, within MoE)

So after the RNC, Bush gains two more states (Tennessee and WV)with numbers out of MoE. He gains Arkansas in the within MoE category.

Hmm. I'd say Kerry slipped a bit due to the RNC but I would say he hasn't lost much. Now back to real life.