Our EV analysis

With the soon to be 1st grader, we made our own EV analysis.

Kerry 202
Lean K 45

Tossup 96

Dubya 135
Lean D 61

Remember: need 270 to win.

Largely using 2.004.com poll tallies as a base, I also used the latest Zogby, only if outside MoE. Solid states are those outside of MoE. I grouped the states as follows:

Tossup states:
Florida
Iowa
Missouri
Nevada
Ohio
Tennessee
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Lean Kerry:
Maine
Minnesota (from Zogby)
New Hampshire (from Zogby)
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon

Lean Dubya:
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
North Carolina
South Carolina
Virginia

Kerry, solid:
California
Connecticutt
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan (due to Zogby)
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington

Dubya, solid:
Alabama
Alaska
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Your opinion?