Saturday, July 31, 2004

The latest online Zogby results: July 26th, 2004

The newest online Zogby interactive results are in. Take a look.

States where Kerry continues to keep a lead outside of the margin of error(MoE), July 12th results in parenthesis. Note: these are the deltas, the difference between the numbers between Kerry and Dubya.

Washington 7.6% (8.2%)
Oregon 9.2% (9.2%)

New states where Kerry has a lead outside of MoE, July 12th results in parenthesis:

Michigan 8.7% (5.9%, within MoE)
New Mexico 9.8% (7.3%, within MoE)

States where Kerry no longer leads outside of MoE, compared to July 12th (in parenthesis):

Florida Bush by 0.1%, within MoE (6.6%, Kerry lead outside of MoE)
New Hampshire Kerry by 4.6%, within MoE (9.0% Kerry lead outside of MoE)
Pennsylvania Kerry by 6.5%, within MoE (7.3% Kerry lead outside of MoE)
Wisconsin Kerry by 4.3%, within MoE (9.4% Kerry lead outside of MoE)

The rest: all deltas within MoE

Arkansas Bush by 2.8% (Bush by 2.2%)
Iowa Kerry by 1.8% (Kerry 1.6%)
Minnesota Kerry by 6.4% (Kerry 5.2%)
Missouri Kerry by 0.7% (Kerry 3.3%)
Nevada Kerry by 0.6% (Bush 1.8%)
Ohio Bush by 1.3% (Kerry 0.7%)
Tennessee Kerry by 2.2% (even)
W. Virginia Bush by 3.9% (Bush 8.2%)

Volatile as heck, and we don't even see the bounce from the Democratic convention.

My take: if Kerry continues to use his convention speech as his stump speech, expect a huge change for Kerry especially in Nevada and West Virginia, two states with a larger percentage of vets. I think his speech will go over well, hopefully solidifying a lead outside of MoE in those two states. Fingers crossed.

For those who use these Zogby interactive results for their electoral vote counts, I would say don't. If you do, use the states where the results are outside of MoE. Everything else is up for grabs, in my opinion. The numbers are too volatile for my taste.