Tuesday, August 03, 2004

August 2nd, 2004 online Zogby interactive poll results

Obsessed over here.

The latest results are out. Zogby says there is a convention bounce. I say no, I don't see it yet.

My analysis uses MoE as a benchmark. Numbers below represent the delta between Kerry and Dubya numbers.

States Kerry keeps out of MoE, compared to July 26th results (in parenthesis):

Washington 7.8% (7.6%)
Michigan 7.5% (8.7%)

New states joining Kerry out of MoE, asterisk indicates number is within MoE.

Minnesota 8.1% (6.4%*)
New Hampshire 8.9% (4.6%*)
Pennsylvania 8.0% (6.5%*)

Compared to last month, Oregon and New Mexico numbers, well within MoE the last two times, now drops out of this range. Two states drop out of MoE; three states come into MoE. Can't rightly say this is a bounce.

Oregon 4.0%* (9.2%)
New Mexico 1.5%* (9.8%)

The rest: all within MoE, as it was last time.

Arkansas 1.5%* Bush, (2.8%* Bush)
Florida 2.8%*, (0.1%* Bush)
Iowa 3.9%*, (1.8%*)
Missouri 0.6%*, (0.7%*)
Nevada 0.6%* Bush, (0.6% *)
Ohio 5.0%* Bush, (1.3%* Bush)
Tennessee 1.8%*, (2.2%*)
W. Virginia 3.4%*, (3.9%* Bush)
Wisconsin 1.9%*, (4.3%*)

West Virginia flips back to Kerry but within MoE. Nevada is, frankly, up in the air. I'm going to say the bounce in WV and Nevada will show up later, if Kerry continues to use his convention speech as his stump speech.

I think bounce isn't showing yet. Good news is Dubya has no clear lead in any state outside of MoE. My opinion. Next on the agenda: can we make sure we get a clean vote in November?