Sunday, July 11, 2004

Run that data by me again, pal

AP does a dump on Kerry/Edwards, saying Edwards had little effect on the polls. A close look at the piece shows the guy does not quote any polls directly except for the Ipsos poll.
But those looking for a Kerry surge in the polls after the Edwards pick saw a shift of a few points, often within a poll's margin of error.

An AP-Ipsos poll released Thursday offered an early hint there would not be a post-Edwards bounce for Kerry.

Bush had a slight lead over Kerry as voters expressed increasing confidence about the economy. Bush was at 49 percent, Kerry at 45 percent and independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 3 percent, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

Other polls in the next few days showed Bush and Kerry essentially tied in a three-way contest. Kerry had a slight edge in a two-way race with Bush in some polls.
Good thing we have Ruy Teixeira on our side, who actually dares to look at the data.
A number of polls were released today indicating a positive reaction to Kerry's selection of Edwards as his running mate and suggesting an immediate boost to the Democratic ticket. CBS News, for example, found the Kerry-Edwards ticket besting Bush-Cheney by 5 points (49-44) among RVs, while Kerry alone was leading Bush by only a point (45-44) 10 days ago.

That poll also finds Cheney with a heavily net negative (-20) favorability rating--only 27 percent favorable, compared to 47 percent unfavorable. Edwards is not rated by many respondents but those who do view him favorably by about the same margin ((38 percent favorable/9 percent unfavorable, for a +19 net rating) that Cheney is viewed unfavorably.

Even more impressive, in NBC News' overnight poll, Kerry-Edwards leads Bush-Cheney by 11 points (54-43). Moreover, 24 percent day Edwards' selection makes them more likely to vote for Kerry, compared to just 7 percent who say that selection makes them less likely.

Could Edwards be president? The public thinks so, even if Bush ("Cheney can be president, next") does not. By 45 percent to 38 percent, voters pick Edwards over Cheney as the one who do the better job running the country. And, by 49 percent to 28 percent, voters pick Edwards over Cheney as one who is more optimistic about the future of the country.
It seems to take awhile before any type of news hits the polls. I expect to see the bounce in the future. Umm. Tell me again, why does AP hate America?