Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Oct. 19th Zogby Interactive Poll results

A close race gets even closer according to the latest WSJ-Zogby interactive results.

States where Kerry leads outside the margin of error (MOE), Oct. 6th results in parenthesis. Numbers represent the delta between the two.

Oregon 13.1% (10.1%)
Minnesota 11.1% (8.3%)
Washington 10.4% (9.9%)
New Mexico 9.5% (11.4%)
Michigan 6.7% (9.7%)
Pennsylvania 5.7% (5.4%)

The Kerry lead stays outside of MOE in every state and even strengthens in four states, in comparison to Oct. 6th results. If there were absolutely no polling shenanigans, these states should solidly be for Kerry on November 2nd.

States where Kerry leads within the margin of error.

New Hampshire 5.1% (6.6%)
Wisconsin 3.8% (2.5%)
Iowa 3.2% (6.6%)

Four states fall out of this category into the Dubya side: Nevada, Ohio, Arkansas, and Florida. This is the zone where the race truly is too close to call. I was hoping Kerry would strengthen in New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio, but no. Still there is time.

States where Dubya leads outside margin of error.


States where Dubya leads within margin of error.

Nevada 3.9% (last time, 1.0% Kerry, within MOE)
Missouri 3.1% (2.2%)
Ohio 3.0% (0.3% Kerry, within MOE)
West Virginia 2.8% (6.1%)
Tennessee 2.5% (0.9%)
Arkansas 1.3% (0.2% Kerry, within MOE)
Florida 1.2% (0.4% Kerry, within MOE)

More states in this column doesn't mean time to panic. In all of these states, the margin of error makes it too close to call. Good news: West Virginia shows a small change against Dubya and Dubya's lead is solid in none of these states.

Overall, it looks as though there are two trends: the Pacific Northwest should be solidly voting for Kerry, barring voting irregularities, and, secondly, there is a slight trend towards support for Dubya.

Still, the good news, which bears repeating, is that Dubya's lead is solid in none of the states.