Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Newest Zogby interactive results

Those online Zogby interactive polls are just too delicious to pass up without a comment. I've previously threw a fit about these Zogby polls. I decided they are just too volatile to rely on. Case in point this time: see Tennessee for volatility. July 12th results show a huge change: from a nearly 20 point difference between K and B Jun 21st to dead even this time around.

While I've seen lots of commentary on how Kerry is doing so much better this time around, I don't trust these results even though I like them. If anything, these polls might be exaggerating trend; if you take that point of view, then consider this still one more evidence of a nice Edwards bounce.

The results that seem most solid are those of the states with numbers falling outside the MoE, number representing percent lead:

Florida Kerry 6.6%
New Hampshire Kerry 9.0%
Oregon Kerry 9.2%
Pennsylvania Kerry 7.3%
Washington Kerry 8.2%
Wisconsin Kerry 9.4%

Methinks the numbers all look a bit high. Despite that, I do believe Kerry leads in all.

Following are states where the % lead falls within MoE:

Arkansas Bush 2.2%
Iowa Kerry 1.6%
Michigan Kerry 5.9%
Minnesota Kerry 5.2%
Missouri Kerry 3.3%
Nevada Bush 1.8%
New Mexico Kerry 7.3%
Onio Kerry 0.7%
Tennessee Even
West Virginia 8.2%

I think West Virginia is off. I believe the race is closer. Also, note last time Bush was ahead in Michigan.

Now it would be nice to see other states: Maine, NC, VA, and even Louisiana. This Zogby thing is an interesting experiment but I'm not going to get excited yet.